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一 | AUCKLAND, New Zealand -- Conservative former businessman Christopher Luxon will be New Zealand’s next prime minister after winning a decisive election victory Saturday.People voted for change after six years of a liberal government led for most of that time by Jacinda Ardern.The exact makeup of Luxon’s government is still to be determined as ballots continued to be counted.Luxon arrived to rapturous applause at an event in Auckland. He was joined on stage by his wife, Amanda, and their children, William and Olivia. He said he was humbled by the victory and couldn't wait to get stuck in to his new job. He thanked people from across the country.“You have reached for hope and you have voted for change,” he said.Supporters chanted his campaign slogan which promised to get the country “back on track.” Outgoing Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, who spent just nine months in the top job after taking over from Ardern in January, told supporters late Saturday he had called Luxon to concede.Hipkins said it wasn’t the result he wanted.“But I want you to be proud of what we achieved over the last six years,” he told supporters at an event in Wellington.Ardern unexpectedly stepped down as prime minister in January, saying she no longer had “enough in the tank” to do the job justice. She won the last election in a landslide, but her popularity waned as people got tired of COVID-19 restrictions and inflation threatened the economy.Her departure left Hipkins, 45, to take over as leader. He had previously served as education minister and led the response to the coronavirus pandemic. With most of the vote counted, Luxon’s National Party had about 40% of the vote. Under New Zealand’s proportional voting system, Luxon, 53, is expected to form an alliance with the libertarian ACT Party. Meanwhile, the Labour Party that Hipkins leads was getting only a little over 25% of the vote — about half the proportion it got in the last election under Ardern.And in a result that would be particularly stinging for Labour should it lose the seat, National was in a tight race for Ardern’s old electorate seat, Mount Albert. The seat has long been a Labour stronghold and was also held by another former Labour prime minister, Helen Clark. The National Party candidate for the seat, Melissa Lee, told The Associated Press she was feeling excited but also nervous about the final result in Mount Albert.“It’s been Labour since 1946. It has been the biggest, safest Labour seat forever,” she said. “It would be fantastic if we won it.” Lee said that when she was door-knocking, people had told her they were tired of the current government and were concerned with the state of the economy and the spiraling cost of living. David Farrar, a longtime conservative pollster, said there was still a good chance that Labour would end up holding the seat once all the votes were counted. However, he said, his initial impression of voting throughout the country was that it was turning out to be a “bloodbath” for the left. Luxon has promised tax cuts for middle-income earners and a crackdown on crime. Hipkins had promised free dental care for people younger than 30 and the removal of sales taxes on fruit and vegetables.Also at stake in the election is the government’s relationship with Indigenous Māori. Luxon has promised to axe the Māori Health Authority, which he says creates two separate health systems. Hipkins says he’s proud of such co-governance efforts and has accused Luxon of condoning racism.Within days of taking the reins in January, Hipkins found himself dealing with a crisis after deadly floods and then a cyclone hit New Zealand. He quickly jettisoned some of Ardern’s more contentious policies and promised a “back to basics” approach focused on tackling the spiraling cost of living. Warm spring weather in the largest city, Auckland, seemed to encourage voters, with queues forming outside some polling places. Early voting before Election Day was lower than in recent elections.During a six-week election campaign, both Hipkins and Luxon traveled the country and hammed it up for the cameras. Earlier in the week, Luxon, who served as chief executive of both Unilever Canada and Air New Zealand, told an energized crowd in Wellington that he would crack down on gangs.“I’ve gotta tell you, crime is out of control in this country,” Luxon said. “And we are going to restore law and order, and we are going to restore personal responsibility.”Luxon also got cheers when he promised to fix the capital’s gridlocked traffic with a new tunnel project.Luxon is relatively new to politics but held his own against the more experienced Hipkins during televised debates, according to political observers. But Luxon also made some gaffes, such as when he was asked in a 1News debate how much he spent each week on food.His answer of “about sixty bucks” (U.S. $36) was ridiculed on social media as showing he was out of touch with the cost of living. ___Follow AP’s Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific。春种一粒粟，秋收万颗子。可很多人不知道的是，眼下本该是充满喜悦的丰收季节，现实却是一场与天气赛跑的艰难战役。

二 | 继《北移的降水线不仅悄悄改变中国生态》一文引发广泛共鸣后，许多读者纷纷留言感叹： “今年的秋收实在太难了。

三 | ” 确实，2025年秋收时节，我国最重要的“粮仓”——黄淮海主产区，正面临一场近年来罕见的“旱涝急转”严峻考验，无数来不及收割的玉米、花生只能发霉发芽。今年秋收究竟有多难今年入夏后，河南、陕西等主产区率先遭遇“烤验”，6月～8月河南降水偏少两成多、气温偏高，部分地块甚至干裂出手指宽的缝隙，农户们只能昼夜不停抽水灌溉。数据显示，2025年前三季度全国范围因干旱灾害造成1875.7万人次不同程度受灾，因旱饮水困难牲畜达357.4万头（只）——国家防灾减灾救灾委员会办公室10.17《前三季度全国自然灾害情况》。更让农户措手不及的是“旱涝急转”的剧烈反差，而这种气候切换的剧烈程度也前所未有。

四 | 刚过9月，河南天气骤然“变脸”，降水猛增，田间瞬间从“缺雨”转为“涝灾”。

五 | 刚喘过气的农户们好不容易盼到作物成熟，却因连绵不断的秋雨，立即就要投入新的“战场”。 10月18日，中央气象台发布农业气象专报显示，9月以来，西北地区东部、华北南部和黄淮大部降水量较常年同期偏多1到4倍，降雨日数偏多8到24天，日照偏少三成至八成，其中河南、山东降水量和降水日数均位居1961年以来同期第1位。 9月以来，河南全省平均降水量达349.6毫米，较常年同期偏多2.6倍，创下1961年有气象记录以来同期之最，平均阴雨日数达25.3天，较常年多14天，先后出现10轮大范围降水。山东的情况更为严峻，9月1日至10月8日全省平均降水量达249.1毫米，约为常年3.7倍。尤其是原来7月前后结束的汛期，今年却持续到10月，连绵阴雨达三周之久，当地部分农田土壤相对湿度在90%以上，很多田地因雨水浸泡已成了“烂泥塘”。秋雨连绵之下，地里道路早已变得泥泞不堪，农机寸步难行，玉米、花生等粮食几乎全烂在了地里。受水灾影响倒伏和发霉的玉米这些地方的路况到底有多糟糕？这么说吧，即便拖拉机拉着空车斗进地，也会立刻陷在烂泥地里，寸步难行。只要再装上玉米，哪怕只有半车，任凭司机把油门踩到底，柴油机嘶吼、黑烟冲天，车辆却纹丝不动，怎么都出不来。

六 | 最后只能喊人帮忙，再开一辆拖拉机来，两车合力，得费好大劲儿，才勉强把陷入泥窝的车斗拖出来。

七 | 由于轮式收割机根本无法进地，当地农户只能雇佣人工收割，成本比往年翻了数倍，也严重影响到了抢收进度。最令人担忧的，还是即将开始的秋种衔接。目前，山东、河南等地的冬小麦播种期已推迟近半个月，而此时北方气温明显下滑，部分地区最低气温可能跌破冰点，可能对播种质量带来更严重的影响。事实上，眼下这场灾害带来的损失，远不只看得见的收成不足。秋雨下的粮食危机与农户困境持续的阴雨天气导致日照严重不足，对秋收作物的生长和品质造成了显著影响。许多地区的玉米因授粉不良而无法正常结棒，黄豆则结荚数量减少或籽粒干瘪，直接推高了粮食减产的风险。

八 | 在山东、河南等花生主产区，潮湿的环境更是引发了根腐病，导致地下果实腐烂，有农户反映部分果实“一捏就流汤”，无奈感叹。

九 | “看着棵子是好的，底下全坏了，今年算是白干了”。不仅如此，那些被雨水浸泡后的粮食收上来后，怎么晾晒也成了问题。由于连日下雨，不见阳光，这些极度潮湿的粮食堆在一起，不出几日就会霉变。网上有农户戏称： “今年河南的玉米有三种颜色，先是金黄色，后来变成了白色，最后都成了绿色。” 而这些霉变的玉米、大豆，每斤往往只能卖两三毛钱，连化肥钱都赚不回来。于是，原本就稀缺的烘干机瞬间成“香饽饽”。虽然山东紧急公布了16市1860多个烘干中心，河南也亮出18地市2900个服务点，可面对千家万户的湿粮，有限的烘干机仍是“僧多粥少”。排不上队的农户只能咬牙把潮湿霉变的玉米拉到收购点，忍痛以不到5毛钱一斤的价格出售。背着粮食走在泥泞地里的农民要知道，过去扣除买肥料、种子、浇地等费用，平均每亩地能给农户带来一千多元的收入，而如今收入连一半都不到。此外，仅烘干环节一项，亩均成本就增加50元（按1000斤×0.05元/斤计），若再算上往返搬运和人工，湿粮出田成本直接超过百元。许多舍不得或无力承担这笔支出的农户，只能无奈地看着抢收回来的粮食品质进一步恶化。面对严峻的秋收与烘干困境，相关机构与各省市其实早就行动起来，提供了多方面支持。中华全国供销合作总社发布通知，要求黄淮海地区的供销合作社抓住降水间歇的窗口期，组织机具抢收，并统筹烘干资源，开展异地烘干、代烘干等业务。各类保险机构也纷纷表示，将尽快开展理赔工作，力求应赔尽赔。山东省不仅紧急拨付专项资金支持抢收抢烘，还统筹调动了全省1312支农机应急抢收服务队和526个区域农机服务中心投入战斗。除了公布大量烘干服务点信息，山东还投入了本地大量履带式收割机，并接收了来自江苏、河南、安徽等地的近900台履带式收获机进行跨区支援。受灾严重的河南省，一方面调拨了省内自有的7980台履带式收割机，另一方面从江苏、湖北等省引进了3000多台履带机进行支援。 10月16日下午，河南省农业农村厅发布消息称：截至当天下午18时，河南省秋作物已收获11090万亩(占94%)。其中，粮食作物已收获7228万亩(占94.7%)。

十 | 除部分沿黄水稻、再生稻和晚熟大豆、红薯、倒茬蔬菜等晚茬作物外，秋收基本结束。客观地说，面对极端天气的影响，从中央到地方采取的应对措施是相当及时和得力的，已尽可能将损失降到了最低。

十一 | 然而，采后损失（如霉变导致品质下降和价格下跌）与田间减产叠加在一起，还是让今年农户的相关收益大打折扣。此次秋收挑战也让人们不禁反思，面对越来越频繁的极端天气，究竟该如何提升农业防灾减灾和粮食产后处理能力？从应急应对到现代农业的韧性构建其实，若以局外人的视角审视此次秋收困境，不难看出几个深层次矛盾。首先，我国农业本质上仍处于“半机械化”状态，并未真正摆脱“靠天吃饭”的宿命。尽管我们如今在耕地、播种、施药、收割等生产环节已实现较高程度的机械化，但最关键的晾晒和加工处理环节仍高度依赖人工，这种体系性的断档使得整个农业生产链条在极端天气面前格外脆弱。更值得注意的是，当百年一遇的极端天气逐渐变为“十年一遇”甚至“五年一遇”时，我们的抗旱排涝设施、特殊农机装备（如履带式收割机）和烘干仓储能力却未能同步升级，暴露出农业应对极端自然天气能力的系统性短板。同时，灾害发生时，从预警信息传递到农机具跨区调度，从抢收组织到烘干服务分配，我们农业的整体应急响应机制仍显迟缓。对比国内实践与国际经验，或许更能发现农业生产改进的方向。面对罕见的连阴雨，山东金乡、郓城等地就曾尝试用农业无人机搭载特制吊筐，在泥地里抢收鲜食玉米。这种无人机单机一次可吊约70kg，按3分钟往返算，一个上午可飞40趟，40机群同时作业1600趟，就能把1000亩鲜食玉米抢出地。

十二 | 在精准气象服务方面，浙江龙游县搭建的“智慧粮脑”数字农业服务系统，通过及时向种植户发送精准预警与防范措施，帮助当地农户在寒潮来临前采取覆盖、加温等手段保护沃柑等经济作物，降低灾害损失。此外，青海门源县气象局通过优化作业点布局、升级装备，在强对流天气中有效组织防雹作业，保护了当地数万亩油菜等农作物；河北景县气象局为“鱼菜共生”基地提供跟踪式气象服务，在极端降温天气前及时预警，指导基地采取防寒措施避免损失。遗憾的是，由于各种原因，这类精准化、前置化的服务未能实现全面普及和系统化部署，反映出当前农业管理中的重要悖论：虽然粮食安全被提到战略高度，但基层农业服务体系的能力建设却相对滞后。更值得深思的是，当传统家族互助模式逐渐退出历史舞台后，现代化的农业社会化服务体系，也未能有效补位。

十三 | 此外，当玉米还泡在地里时，许多村镇最显眼的却是“禁烧秸秆”的标语和检查站，这种管理上的错位，同样折射出农业在现代化进程中的现实处境：重要，但不被重视；关键，但投入不足。反观国际经验，日本通过《农业灾害补偿法》建立政府主导、多方参与的风险共担机制，法国发展成熟的农业互助保险体系，为分散农业巨灾风险提供了有效保障。澳大利亚早在20世纪90年代，就将抗旱理念从应急救援转向风险管理，鼓励农民将干旱视为正常的商业成本进行管理。美国在应对旱灾和洪灾时，救援原则始终是强调“预防重于保险，保险重于救灾，经济手段重于行政措施”。当然，以上国家的农场规模均在50公顷以上，财政直补比例高，但其在农业和救灾领域的系统性能力建设，依然值得我们深思和借鉴。可以说，面对黄淮地区可能再度出现的秋收困境，加快构建更具气候韧性的现代农业体系已刻不容缓。眼下，我们不仅要继续推动农业全链条由机械化向智能化升级，更要参考国内外应对灾害天气的成功案例，建立更精准的灾害预警与响应机制，发展“耕种管收”一条龙服务体系，弥补当前最薄弱的环节。唯有将应对极端天气的能力深度融入基础设施、技术推广和社会化服务之中，才能真正实现我们的农业从“靠天吃饭”到“知天而作”的根本性转变，确保国家粮食安全的底线在日益多变的气候条件下依然稳固。本文来自微信公众号：城市研究室，作者：王药师。

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